Topcat

Ipswich come into this game searching for just their second away win of the season. The visitors have a terrible record on their travels – the worst in the division. While they’ve picked up back to back draws, those were mixed displays back at Portman Road. Now they’re out on the road, aiming to end a torrid run of form. Ipswich have lost their last seven away league games, their worst losing run since losing 10 in a row between January and August 1995. Will they be able to end that at the DW?
It’s hard to make a case for the visitors claiming anything. They come into this one with 13 defeats in their 16 trips this term. They’ve shipped over two goals per game, while the Tractor Boys have scored only nine times in their 19 trips. That terrible return should see them struggle here, after failing to find the net in 69% of their away trips. Meanwhile, they’ve conceded twice in their last 15 away games, which should help Wigan to a win.
The hosts have won eight, drawn four and lost four at home. Their defeats have come to sides in the top nine, with a great record against the rest. We think under 5.5 goals will be seen in this game today.

Leeds are heavy favourites for the win, and we see them living up to that with a straightforward win. They aren’t likely to repeat Norwich’s thumping of the Trotters, with just 15% of Bolton’s games seeing over 3.5 goals scored. Leeds have seen fewer than four goals in 81% of their home games, while the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their trips. Leeds are yet to score more than three times at home this term, so we’re going with a home win and under 5.5 goals.

At home West Ham have lost just 1 of their last 6 league games, winning 3 of them and avoiding defeat against both Arsenal and Liverpool. This leaves Pellegrini’s men in 10th, just 4 points off Wolves in a 7th place standing that is likely to include Europa League qualification.
They face Fulham – A side who look destined for a quick return to the second tier this season, despite a heavy outlay of cash during the summer. Their 3-0 defeat against Manchester United last time out made it 5 defeats from their last 6 Premier League games, leaving them 19th in the table and some 8 points adrift of safety.
The Cottagers form gets even worse when away from home, where they have failed to win a single game all season and have picked up 2 points from a potential 39. That’s 11 defeats in 13 games, and considering West Ham’s respectable home form, we think this price for a home win is incredibly good value. We’re backing a West Ham win with over 0.5 goals too be seen tonight.
We also like the look of Marko Arnautovic to find the net. The Austrian forward has suffered from a few injuries this season, but he has scored 5 league goals in his 9 home appearances now and is a real danger through the middle.

We’re expecting to see a reaction from the Braga players following that disappointing defeat away at Sporting, and the recent results between the two clubs and their form heading into the match all suggests the hosts will be victorious. Braga have won their last five matches against Belenenses, the last three of which have all been accompanied by a clean sheet. The hosts have won four of their last six matches in all competitions, while their guests are without a win in their last five matches, picking up two draws and three defeats. Belenenses have now failed to score in each of their last four Primeira Liga games and their hosts have managed to keep three clean sheets in their last five league games.
Dyego Sousa top scores for the hosts with fourteen goals in this seasons Primeira Liga, while Fredy leads the way for the visitors with six league goals to his name. The hosts have been very strong at home this season and have won the majority of their last six matches, while Belenenses haven’t managed to score in any of their last four games and are without a win in their last five.We’re confident that Braga will win with under 5.5 goals .

Both AC Milan and Empoli have scored in the last eight Serie A clashes between the two sides: 27 goals in total (3.4 per game on average). That high scoring record should continue in this one. Empoli have seen over 2.5 goals in 73% of their away trips. Meanwhile, Milan have won all of their bottom half clashes at home, with over 2.5 goals scored in each of them. That has us backing a home win and over 2.5 goals, along with a 2-1 success for the Rossoneri.
AC Milan striker Krzysztof Piatek scored his very first Serie A goal against Empoli on August 26th, for Genoa. That started a whirlwind rise for the forward, who went from unknown Genoa addition to Milan’s £35million forward. That huge leap hasn’t stopped him, as he’s now scored six times in his last four for his new side. With two goals in that vital win over Atalanta, he’s providing in key moments. Going up against one of the league’s worst defences should see him add to his bright start. We’re going with over 0.5 goals to be seen in tonight.

Benfica haven’t relied on one main source of goals in Europe this season, instead multiple players have shared the burden and head into the 2nd leg with two goals in Europe so far. Swiss international Derdiyok is the only Galatasaray player to have scored more than once in Europe this season, and has on;y two goals to his name. We’re confident that Benfica will win and that both teams will score on Thursday, with the final scoreline ending 3-1 to the Portuguese giants. Benfica had the beating of Galatasaray last week and in their own backyard the Portuguese outfit have looked really strong all season long. Admittedly the hosts haven’t kept many clean sheets of late, but they have been scoring for fun and even put ten past Nacional in the Primeira Liga just over a week ago.Let go with over 0.5 goals to be seen tonight.

This time around we’re expecting Leverkusen to make more of their possession and chances by winning the 2nd leg and keeping a clean sheet in the process. That should have been the case in the 1st leg after the Germans dominated the majority of the match, but Krasnodar escaped with a clean sheet. Bayer Leverkusen have won four of their last six matches and kept three clean sheets during that period. Krasnodar are now without a win in their last four competitive matches and lost their last away game 3-0 against Sevilla. The Russians have proven their defensive ability at home, but four of their last six away games have ended in defeat and the Russians have failed to score in their last two away games in the Europa League. All of the above points towards a home win and a clean sheet for Leverkusen on Thursday, and if they play anything like their best in the 2nd leg, then the result will surely follow.
Alario has scored four goals n Europe for Bayer Leverkusen this season, with Havertz not far behind on three, while Ari remains the only Krasnodar player to have scored more than once in the Europa League for the visitors and leads the way with a mere two goals, which highlights one of the Russian sides weak points this season. We’re confident that Bayer Leverkusen will win to nil in Thursday’s 2nd leg, and have backed a convincing under 5.5 goals for this game. The hosts were unlucky not to score multiple times in Russia and appear to have the beating of Krasnodar, while the hosts have struggled to score goals in Europe, especially away from home and don’t have anything from the 1st leg to fall back on.

Malmo should also fancy themselves to make offensive headway in this match. The Swedish outfit failed to resist defensively last week, but they created plenty going forward, as they clocked a more than respectable 1.63 expected goals for. With Chelsea likely to attack in their own patch, the visitors should be able to play on the counter, which is a tactic that served them well a week ago.
To put it simply, after they troubled the Chelsea rear-guard in the first leg and after they scored away against the likes of Besiktas in the groups, Malmo should not be underestimated ahead of this fixture.
In the betting, under 5.5 Goals stands out. Not only did such a selection yield a profit in the first leg, but the performance of both on that occasion suggests that, at the very least, scoring chances will arrive for both teams on Thursday. Moreover, the performance of both last week coupled with their respective efforts at home and away during the group stages suggests that there may just be a smidgen of value to be had by supporting a high-scoring encounter at the current prices.

If the visitors are to go through, then their best chance is to try and shut up shop. Having restricted Arsenal to just a few opportunities last week, the visitors may fancy themselves to keep things tight, but their efforts on the road against another London club in the groups suggest that they’ll come unstuck eventually. Thursday’s visitors conceded 1.74 goals when facing Chelsea away from home, so Arsenal ought to be capable of creating opportunities in this second leg.

Taking everything into account, the bet that stands out is ‘Arsenal to Win & over 0.5 Goals’. On the balance of play, the visitors really ought to have come away with a narrow victory last week, but they can make up for failing to do that here. The visitors showed enough in the first leg to suggest that they can avoid a battering, but they lack quality, especially in the final third, while their previous away-day efforts in this competition show that they’re unlikely to hold out for 90 minutes.

The bet that stands out ahead of this fixture is over 0.5 goals. In all honesty, if Zurich were going to stand a chance of qualifying for the next round, they had to get something in front of their own fans. Having failed to do that, the Swiss side are now there to be got at. The Italian outfit showed that they’ve got more than enough quality to really hurt Thursday’s visitors, who’re in real danger of being torn apart now that they must chase the game. If we consider this in conjunction with the fact that Napoli have looked menacing going forward at home this season and the fact that Zurich struggled offensively on the road earlier in this competition, then backing over 0.5 goals is better.

The bet that stands out at the prices is ‘Derby to Win & Under 5.5 Goals’. As touched on above, Derby haven’t been amazing going forward as a collective, but with the likes of Holmes and Wilson in their side, they’ve got numerous difference-makers in the final third. The same cannot be said for Millwall. If we consider this individual quality in conjunction with the fact that the Rams come into this match off the back of two encouraging home performances, both of which saw them better their opponents in terms of expected goals, then it’s easy to back Lampard’s men to tame the Lions.

Even in the Champions League, both Atletico Madrid and Juventus saw 3 or more goals in half of their group games. When it comes to the knockout stages things get a little tighter, but Diego Simeone’s side have been involved in high scoring games in 5 of their last 11 knockout stage matches and Juventus have in 7 of their last 11, including each of their last 6 matches.
This makes these odds for Over 0.5 Goals look incredibly good value, despite the defensive outlook that they seem to possess. We’re backing that, along with a tight 2-1 win for an Atletico Madrid side who won all 3 of their home games in the group stages.
We’re also backing Antoine Griezmann to find the net for the hosts. The French striker has netted 8 goals in Atletico Madrid’s last 8 Champions League home games, failing to find the net in just 1 of these matches. All 4 of his European goals this season have come at the Wanda Metropolitano, so he looks a great choice for our anytime goalscorer predictions.

Tuesday’s hosts haven’t been getting the desired results of late, but some of their attacking efforts suggest that it won’t be long before they’re back in the winner’s enclosure. Last time out at home, they were unlucky not to beat a very strong Doncaster side, as they recorded an impressive 2.88 expected goals for and conceded just 0.88 at the other end. What’s more, Jackett’s men have considerably outperformed their opponents in terms of expected goals in each of their last ten at home, while they’re now averaging an expected goal difference of +1.17 on home soil.
While Portsmouth have looked a very dangerous outfit at Fratton Park, Bristol Rovers have struggled to get going offensively on their travels. Tuesday’s visitors have scored in four of their last five on the road, but they’ve failed to find the net in a rather chunky 40% of their travelling matches during the current campaign, while they’re averaging just 0.99 expected goals for. Such a poor figure doesn’t bode well ahead of this match.
Furthermore, the visitors have struggled massively away against the top sides, as they’ve lost each of their four away games against teams currently inside the top six. They conceded seven goals in those four matches, scored just two in reply and were easily bettered in terms of expected goals on each occasion.we think over 0.5 goals wil be seen in this game.

This is another game that doesn’t exactly look likely to produce much goalmouth action. Huesca will be wary of the pace of Inaki Williams so are unlikely to push too far up the pitch. Having gone almost 300 minutes without conceding, they will back themselves to limit Athletic to few chances but they do remain a bit short on quality in the final third.
Heading into match-day 24, only Real Valladolid have scored fewer league goals than these two clubs, who both average exactly one per game. Both Huesca and Athletic have made coaching changes this term that have effectively seen them change to a more defensive approach and overall backing Under 3.5 Goals is good here, with Athletic Bilbao league games averaging just 1.55 goals per game under Garitano.
Backing the under 3.5 goals is safe tonight.

We’re backing Benfica to go one better this time around, though the Eagles are unlikely to claim a clean sheet on their way to securing 3 points. Benfica have only kept their opponents out once in their last 6 attempts, and Aves have scored in 8 of their 11 league matches at home this term.
With those statistics considered, we think the Benfica & both teams to score combination looks fantastic value for Monday’s game. The Eagles have really sharpened their attacking talons in recent weeks however, and we think their blistering forward play will be on show again at the Estádio do CD Aves.
The last time Benfica visited that venue in the league, they ran out 3-1 winners, and we’re tipping Monday’s game with under 5.5 goals to be seen tin this game.

Roma have won five of their last six home games, which they’ll be hoping to add to. They’ve found a balance in recent weeks, fully going with their attacking style. While Roma have had their defensive issues, they’ve got enough going forward to compensate. Now that they’ve found that balance, the Giallorossi are climbing up the standings.
That approach has also led to some high scoring games at the Stadio Olimpico. Roma have seen over 2.5 goals in 82% of their home matches, and we see this game going the same way. Six of the last seven games here have seen over 2.5 goals, while Roma’s last 14 home wins in all competitions have seen at least three goals scored. With the hosts heavy favourites for the win, we’ve picked out over 0.5 goals as our tip.

Chelsea may have managed to get back to winning ways in midweek when they faced Malmo in the first leg of their Europa League tie, but Maurizio Sarri and his men will still be reeling off the back of their horror show last weekend.
They were demolished 6-0 by a rampant Manchester City side, following on from their 4-0 defeat against Bournemouth in their last away game and making it 12 goals conceded without reply on the road.
Back at Stamford Bridge they will be hoping for a better outcome, but even there they have faltered at times this season. They dropped 2 points against Southampton in their first outing of 2019 and lost to Leicester just before Christmas, and now they’re facing an in form Manchester United side who have some big scalps under their belt since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took charge.
The Norwegian interim manager did suffer a setback in midweek though, losing 2-0 at home to PSG to leave their Champions League hopes dangling by a thread. Overturning this deficit at the Parc des Princes won’t be an easy task, but they will at least hope to bounce back on Monday night.Therefor toninght we will see under 5.5 goals.




 

• Alaves have lost 58% of their away games in La Liga this term. That’s really poor for a top six side and they are unlikely to maintain that position as the season draws to a close. Overall backing Real Betis to Win looks like the way to go here.
• Backing under 4.5 goals  for this game is safe . The Betis man has been on penalty duty and has scored in 4 different games since the turn of the year. He is having arguably the best season of his career and is likely to be a major threat again here for the hosts.good luck

 

• Alaves have lost 58% of their away games in La Liga this term. That’s really poor for a top six side and they are unlikely to maintain that position as the season draws to a close. Overall backing Real Betis to Win looks like the way to go here.
• Backing under 4.5 goals  for this game is safe . The Betis man has been on penalty duty and has scored in 4 different games since the turn of the year. He is having arguably the best season of his career and is likely to be a major threat again here for the hosts.good luck

 

• Alaves have lost 58% of their away games in La Liga this term. That’s really poor for a top six side and they are unlikely to maintain that position as the season draws to a close. Overall backing Real Betis to Win looks like the way to go here.
• Backing under 4.5 goals  for this game is safe . The Betis man has been on penalty duty and has scored in 4 different games since the turn of the year. He is having arguably the best season of his career and is likely to be a major threat again here for the hosts.good luck